Forgewright

Forgewright Advisors · Worked example

Caldwell Custom Homes LLC composite

Prepared for  Dale Caldwell, Owner (illustrative) Engagement  Diagnostic · $2,500 Interviewed  21 August 2026
This is a worked example. It is not a client.

Caldwell Custom Homes is a composite business built to demonstrate the method — the financials, the jobs and the owner are constructed, not redacted. No real client's records appear anywhere in this document, and we have not published anyone's engagement.

Everything else is exactly what a real Build Plan contains: the same eight checks, the same adversarial verification, the same refusal to count a dollar twice, and the same section telling the owner what to ignore. We publish this because nobody else in this category will show you the deliverable before you buy it.

1 · What you said

"We did more volume last year than we've ever done and I took home less than I did in 2022. I can't tell you why and that's what's keeping me up."

You were right to be up at night. Here is why.

2 · The number

$145,313 in historical differences to investigate.

How much of it is recoverable in the next twelve months depends on the records closing, the cause of the residual below, and the cost of the fix. Two components, measured on two different bases. You need to see both bases or the number means nothing.

$130,000
Margin you sold and did not deliver
Measured on $2,830,000 of closed contract value — 8 jobs, Feb–Nov 2025
$15,313
Margin you never sold — price erosion already taken
Measured on $3,240,000 of recognised 2025 revenue
These are not a percentage of one number. The $145,313 is the sum of two separately derived amounts on two different denominators — it is not 4.5% of anything. Anyone who hands you one clean percentage here is selling. That does not mean the two are independent: the $2,830,000 of closed contracts and the $3,240,000 of recognised revenue are largely the same underlying jobs, measured at different points in the accounting cycle, and we have not shown the overlap between them here. Treat $145,313 as the outer bound of what the two checks found, not as two findings that simply add.
Every job, sold against delivered
Eight jobs closed 2025. All eight bid at 22.0%. None delivered it. Boyd is the scenario we measure the rest against — if every job had run like your best one.
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% bid at 22.0% Boyd remodel 18.7% Sanderson remodel 16.5% Arnette barn + ADU 15.6% Pruitt residence 15.5% Deaton residence 13.8% Hensley residence 12.9% Whitfield residence 12.6% Lockhart residence 11.6%
Boyd is the scenario we measure you against — same estimator, same crews, same year, same missing system, and it is your own best job, not an industry figure. Not the 22% you have never hit in any year on record. It shows what the portfolio's ceiling looks like, not what every job should be expected to hit.
Where the gross profit went
On $2,830,000 of closed contracts.
$622,600 Sold at 22% the bid −$94,638 Struck — never achieved $527,962 At Boyd's 18.7% demonstrated −$130,162 The finding of which $52,300 is change orders $397,800 Actual
The $52,300 of unpriced change orders sits inside the red bar — it is cost that already landed in your job actuals. It is added to nothing. That leaves $77,700 as a reconciliation difference your records cannot currently explain — not yet identified opportunity, and not counted toward the guarantee below. It is the largest single reason to install job costing.
Receivables
As of the aging you supplied. Total $216,900.
Current $46,000 31–60 61–90 Over 90 days — $142,000 — 65.5% of the book no documented non-payment remedy · lien deadlines likely run $0 $216,900
Healthy for a builder is under 10% past 60 days. You are at 71.1%.

What you are relying on

Both figures come from your own records, and both records are open. Six of the eight closed jobs closed after March 2025 — the last month your books were closed — so their actual costs are your reported numbers, not reconciled numbers. The 2025 P&L column is your bookkeeper's unclosed draft.

Neither figure imports an outside benchmark or an industry average. Both are your arithmetic on your paper. But the paper is open, and when it closes these numbers will move. Close the books and we re-run them at no charge.

Defensible band on the $130,000: $130,000 to $139,900. We headline the floor. A larger figure was calculated during the analysis and struck, because it would not have survived a hostile CPA in a room. You are getting the number that survives.

3 · What to do, in order

Ordered by dependency and deadline — not by size.

Your biggest number is third. That is deliberate: there is no lever called "margin," and $77,700 of it has no explanation in your records yet. You cannot fix what you cannot see, so seeing it comes first.

Has a clock on itThis week — these expire
Call a Tennessee attorney about the $142,000, before you do anything else on this list.

Lien deadlines are time-barred and yours may already have run. This is not the biggest item in the document — it is the only one that stops being fixable. Everything else here will still be fixable in March 2027.

Owner: Dale · one call · ask what remedy is left, then what the contract needs so the next one has teeth
No job gets a start date without a builders-risk binder number on the folder.

It was missed on Pruitt and Lockhart — $862,000 of work standing uncovered for four months each. The process that missed it twice has not changed, so anything starting now is exposed the same way.

Owner: Dale, until the office seat is filled · effective on the next job start
First thirty daysCheap gates that stop new damage
1 · No change order gets built before it gets priced. Written rule, effective Monday.

You named this before we opened a file — "everybody knows it's a mess, I've said I'd fix it three times." Thirty-one of your forty-seven 2025 change orders were built before anyone priced them, and every one of those billed zero. The two that were priced first billed at 22.6% — correctly. Marcus can price. Nobody asks him to before the work starts.

Worth $52,300 of the $130,000 — forty percent of it. It is not the whole problem and I will not pretend it is.

Owner: lead carpenter at the point of request, with Marcus pricing — deliberately not you, because you are not standing there when the customer asks · one page · two hours to write
2 · Four phone calls. One afternoon.

Broker: raise GL to $2M/$4M — you are contractually short on Whitfield and Deaton today — add an umbrella, and build a builders-risk trigger. One purchase cures three exposures. CPA: catch-up close from April 2025 forward. Attorney: Ray Petrey. Together, under two hours.

Owner: Dale · these are yours because they concern your entity, your guarantee and your money
3 · Load a cost-coded budget on the next contract you sign.

Not all of them. The next one. On the system you already own — no new software. This is the first brick of the ninety-day work, and doing one proves the mechanism before it becomes a project.

Owner: Marcus · at contract signature
First ninety daysTurn the lights on — this is where the money is
Job costing that actually runs, on every live job.

Budget at signature, weekly committed-cost-to-date, fifteen minutes each Friday. Hang cost entry on the draw request — the draw already has to go out or nobody gets paid, so the data gets entered because something people need depends on it. That is why this will work and the 2024 system did not.

This answers what you told us you wanted: "I'd know what a job actually made before it's finished instead of after." It is also what would finally explain the $77,700 reconciliation difference — whether that turns out to be recoverable margin, a bookkeeping error, or something else, this is how you would find out.

Owner: Tina at the point of AP approval · Marcus loads budgets · you run the Friday review
Bid register, and Marcus's estimating method written down.

Six columns — job, date requested, date sent, value, won or lost, why. Ninety days of it makes every pricing question in this report answerable. The written method removes your single largest key-person risk and is what makes a second estimator hireable without recreating nine years of judgement.

Owner: Marcus · thirty seconds per bid · two hours a week for six weeks on the method
Reviewed at ninety daysNot "later" — re-sorted into the next thirty at that review

Operating agreement restatement and the Petrey interest — started now with your attorney, but on his clock, not yours; nothing here waits on it. The price move and its $15,313, once the bid register exists. Owner compensation as a real line. Written sub agreements and certificates on file. Lead source captured on every inquiry. The second shelf in Section 4.

Three of these five near-term items are not yours. You work sixty-five to seventy hours and have taken four genuine days off in two years. A plan you personally own every line of is a plan that does not happen — so the change order gate belongs to the field, and job costing belongs to the office.

4 · The findings

M-01 · $130,000 · Margin sold and not delivered

What it is. Eight of eight jobs closed in 2025 came in under the margin they were sold at. The portfolio landed at 14.06% against a 22.0% bid basis on all eight.

How the number is built. Not against the 22% you bid — against your own Boyd remodel at 18.7% ($34,700 on $186,000), same estimator, same crews, same year, same missing system. 18.656% × $2,830,000 = $527,962 of contractable gross profit, less $397,800 actual = $130,162, rounded down.

Why not the full gap to 22%? Because you have never hit 22% in any year on record — 15.3% in 2024, 14.8% in 2025. Measuring to a target you have never achieved overclaims by roughly $95,000. That gap is not a giveback, it is your steady state, and a number built that way falls apart the first time somebody tests it.

Root cause. Cost is compared to estimate only after a job closes. There is no point in a job's life at which a variance can be seen, so there is no point at which it can be acted on. Structural — a missing mechanism, not a person failing.

You ran 18.7 percent on Boyd. Same estimator, same crews, same year. The difference is $130,000 on $2.83 million of work you have already finished.

F-C3 · $15,313 · Margin never sold

What it is. COGS took 0.4726 more points out of every revenue dollar in 2025 than in 2024, while your bid basis sat at exactly 22.0 on all eight jobs and your price has not moved in about 32 months.

Where it comes from. Your P&L, both years, both inputs from that one document. 2,444,000 / 2,884,000 = 84.7434% in 2024 against 2,761,000 / 3,240,000 = 85.2160% in 2025. A drift of 0.4726 points × $3,240,000.

Different from M-01. That is margin you sold and failed to deliver. This is margin you never sold. Costs rose; price did not follow.

What is deliberately absent. Any "what if we raised price a point" figure. You have no bid register, no measured close rate and no documented lost bid — market acceptance cannot be measured here, so it does not get a dollar attached to it. If you see that number in somebody else's proposal, ask them where it came from.

Severe risk — reported, and deliberately not in the money

These carry no dollar in the total. Risk is not revenue and I will not dress it up as revenue. But two of them can end the company, which is worse than anything above.

FindingWhat it isRoute to
Petrey30% member of record, gone since 2021. No buyout documented. Still on the 2016 agreement and the state member list.Attorney
SuccessionNo continuity provision, no key-person insurance. You sell, run jobs and sign everything.Attorney
GL limitsCarried at $1M/$2M. Whitfield and Deaton require $2M/$4M. In breach since signature.Broker; breach to attorney
Builders riskNever purchased on Pruitt or Lockhart. Both under roof 4+ months. $862,000 of work in place, uncovered.Broker
SubsThree regular subs doing the same field work as your W-2 crew. No written agreements, no certificates. $541,000 of spend.Employment counsel + CPA
Receivables$142,000 over 90 days — 65.5% of the book. No documented remedy, no contract produced. Lien deadlines time-barred.Attorney, before day one
Open booksNot closed since March 2025. Seventeen months. Every 2025 figure is a draft, including two of mine.CPA
No job costNever entered. The system you bought in 2024 holds nothing. This is the mechanism that let the margin gap run two years undetected.Internal — recommended action plan
One estimatorMarcus prices 100% of the work. No backup, nothing written. A custom builder that cannot bid has no forward revenue.Internal
One channelMost of a $3.24M business originates with one uncontracted realtor. No second channel, and $0 of $402,000 in overhead funds one.Internal
No thresholdsNo approval level below your signature. Thirty-one change orders were built without one because waiting would have stopped the job.Cured by 30-day item 1
The one that decides whether any of this works. You bought a PM system, sent Marcus to a pricing class, and hired a bookkeeper. All three failed. That is not bad luck and it is not your people — all three were capability purchases aimed at structural problems. Marcus already knows how to price; he prices change orders at 22.6% when someone asks him to. The class fixed a skill that was not broken. Unless the next fix changes when a decision happens and who has to make it, it fails the same way — and that would be four.

5 · What to ignore

This is the section where the fee gets earned.

Every item below is something a consultant could bill you for.

6 · What's coming

Four transitions ahead of you.

Crossing $4M with one estimator. Marcus becomes the throughput ceiling and the single point of failure at the same time. Bids go out late or go out rough, and margin drops further. Cheap prevention now: Marcus writes down how he prices. Two hours a week for six weeks.

The books coming current. When April 2025 forward finally closes, the 2025 numbers will move, and some will move against you. People stop trusting reporting the moment it disagrees with a draft they had memorised. Cheap prevention: tell your bank and your CPA now that a catch-up close is underway and the drafts will restate. Announced restatements are routine. Discovered ones are not.

The realtor relationship changing. She retires, changes brokerages, or takes a builder partner, and your pipeline goes with her. Cheap prevention: capture lead source on every inquiry starting now. Costs nothing, and in six months you will know whether "mostly one realtor" is 60% or 90%. You cannot manage that risk until you can size it.

Your exit. You said "some days yes," and that it scares you. Whenever it happens, a buyer's diligence finds Petrey on the member list, seventeen months of open books, no job cost history, and a business where the owner signs everything. Each one is a discount. Cheap prevention: the list in Section 3 is most of the pre-sale cleanup already, done years early and at a fraction of the price.

7 · Who to call

Forgewright does not advise on legal, tax, accounting, insurance or investment matters. We identify them and route them. That boundary is not a hedge — it is the reason you can trust the parts we do answer.

We take no fee, referral commission, or consideration of any kind for these introductions. If one of these professionals offers us one, we decline it. You are the only party paying us.

Attorney — business/corporate, Tennessee. "A 30% member of record left in 2021 with no documented buyout and is still on my 2016 operating agreement and on the state member list. What does it take to clean that up, and what is my exposure while it stands? I have no succession provision and no key-person coverage. I have $142,000 in receivables over 90 days with no written non-payment remedy and I believe my lien deadlines have run — what is left to me? And two of my 2025 contracts require insurance limits I did not carry."

CPA. "My books have not been closed since March 2025. I need a catch-up close from April 2025 forward, and owner compensation set up as an actual expense line instead of whatever is left at the end. I take draws with no schedule, and I have three regular subs I need reviewed for classification."

Independent insurance broker. "Raise GL to $2,000,000 / $4,000,000 — I am contractually short today. Quote an umbrella over the GL and the $1M auto CSL. Build me a builders-risk trigger; it was missed on two jobs carrying $862,000 of work in place. And reconcile my workers comp payroll basis on class 5645 — it has never been audited against actual and I expect an assessment."

What to do with this

This is a worked example. Yours would be built from your documents.

Caldwell Custom Homes is a composite — a synthetic company built so the instrument could be demonstrated without using a real client's figures. The arithmetic, the structure and the standards are exactly what a real engagement produces.

Start at forgewrightadvisors.com Call (615) 283-0811

Forgewright Advisors · forgewrightadvisors.com · (615) 283-0811 · Advisory for residential builders and remodelers doing $1–10M. Built to run.